Though the rupee saw its sharpest fall in a day since July 3 of 24 paise to hit 64.08 against the US dollar(USD) on Thursday, the Indian unit is in no hurry to breach 60 levels in the near term, suggests the latest report by Tanvee Gupta Jain, an economist with UBS.
Going ahead, Jain expects the rupee (USD/INR) to remain range-bound between 62-66 levels over the next few months and average 64.3 in FY18 and 65.4 in FY19. UBS had earlier estimated it to hover around 65.4 and 67.6 levels, respectively.
The USD/INR pair has been among the better-performing currencies in emerging markets, appreciating 5.9% thus far in calendar year 2017 (CY17). On Thursday, however, the Indian unit lost ground on reports of escalating India’s geopolitical tension with China amid developments relating to North Korea and the US.
“Rupee came under pressure against the US dollar and fell to the lowest level in a week after geopolitical tensions weighed on domestic as well as global equities. Asian currencies also weakened against the US dollar on weak global sentiment,” says Gaurang Somaiya, research analyst (currency) at Motilal Oswal.
“Weakness in domestic equities could continue in Friday’s session and that could further weigh on the rupee. On the domestic front, market participants will be keeping an eye on industrial production (IIP) data and slower-than-expected growth could keep the rupee under pressure.the USD/INR pair is expected to quote in the range of 64.00 and 64.45,” Somaiya adds.